The Way Forward

It is an ill wind that blows nobody any good, and ‘9/11’ certainly marked a turn for the better for Pakistan. When Karachi decided to support Washington in the global war on terror, the Bush administration, together with other Western governments, erased sanctions on sophisticated weaponry. American officials were also haunted by the possibility that a nuclear-armed Pakistan could, if isolated from western support, become a breeding ground for international terrorism and a fomenter of regional instability. In the words of Air Chief Marshal Saadat: “The country obtained economic assistance, debt rescheduling and favorable trade conditions. This saw the Pakistan Government embark on a planned development of its armed forces and the PAF was granted a major allocation of resources.”

This is not before time. On August 25, 2005, a PAF Mirage crashed near the town of Badin, 105 miles (169km) east of Karachi. The pilot was able to eject safely and an air force spokesman gave ‘technical reasons’ as being responsible for the accident. Asked about frequent PAF crashes, the Commander-in-Chief PAF admitted that the attrition rate “was a bit high” and they had lost some aircraft at low level. He said the ageing Mirages were over 30 years old and the PAF was facing problems in acquiring spares because Dessault had stopped production of some components. However, Pakistan could not ground these aircraft because they formed part of the nuclear deterrent.

This explains why the PAF bough 50 Mirages, 150 sealed pack engines and a huge quantity of Mirage spares from Libya for cash in 2004. Like Pakistan, Libya owned Mirage IIIs and Vs but, although these were in excellent condition, the Libyan Air Force had been dormant for sometime following sanctions imposed after the Boeing 747 was blown up over Lockerbie. With the ex-Libyan airframes, Pakistan now operates more Mirages than the French Air Force. Most of the Libyan aircraft, however, are being cannibalized for spare parts to sustain the PAF fleet of Mirages for the next seven to ten years. Given that the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) likened its Mirages with their rudimentary avionics to ‘Sopwith Camels with reheat’.

Pakistan also plans a phased upgrade and refurbishment of its oldest Mirages with new radars and avionics. Indeed work is underway for the avionics upgrade by French company SAGEM on what is believed to be a total of 14 Mirage 5EFs.

In September 2004, the US agreed to the sale of seven RAAF Lockheed Martin C-130E Hercules, including one for spares: the first of these aircraft arrived with relief goods for Kashmir earthquake survivors in November 2005. The PAF has also signed a contract with Indonesia for four CASA CN-235 transport aircraft. In the new era of international co-operation. Pakistani F-16s deployed to Konya Air Base in Turkey for air combat training in October 2004. The USAF has given Lockheed Martin an $89 million contract to supply six long-range AN/TPS-77 transportable radar systems for Pakistan under the Foreign Military Sales programme. This L-band, tactical radar provides continuous 3D surveillance of air targets out to 243nm (450km) and at altitudes up to 100,000ft (20,480m). Pakistani naval aviation is being strengthened by the gift of eight Lockheed Martin P-3C Orion long-range maritime patrol aircraft to replace existing Atlantics, by the acquisition of Harpoon Block-11 missiles for carriage on the P-3C, and by making its two grounded P-3Cs maritime patrol aircraft operational by the end of this year. All will greatly enhance Pakistani maritime battle management. Pakistan is purchasing six HAI Z-9C helicopters from China and the PAF plans a mix of Chinese and Western equipment in case sanctions are ever imposed again. However, what really matters to Islamabad is access to latest network-enabled warfare technology, and that means support from the West. Air borne early warning (AEW) is vital to Pakistan’s defensive posture and the Swedish Erieye system its active phased array AEW radar (which would be mounted on SAAB 2000s) is close to winning a $1 billion ($560 million) contract to counter Indian interest in the Isreali Phalcon system for use on Ilyushin Il-76s. The Ericcson Erieye is tried and test over the cold mountainous regions that the PAF patrols, but release of some of the avionics to Pakistan depend on US export licenses.

The ‘jewel in the crown’ was the Bush administration’s announcement in March 2005 that it would sell F-16 to Pakistan again. This was seen as a reward for President Musharraf’s efforts in the war on terror, and came in response to Islamabad’s pleading for over two years. The PAF would like to equip three to five squadrons and initial indications were that Pakistan had plans to buy 79 F-16s from Lockheed Martin. Fifty-five of them would be new C/Ds and the rest second-hand, the deal including the upgrade of the 32 1980s vintage F-16s in PAF service. Two F-16s were flown to Pakistan at the end of November 2005, but the deal is now on hold as it would seem insensitive to expend US aid on fast jets while thousands are still suffering in the wake of the devastating Kashmir earthquake. President Musharraf stated that the order for the latest F-16C/Ds will enhance Pakistan ‘strategic capability’ and make a major difference to its ‘strategy of defensive deterrence.” For all the talk of the aircraft being equipped with the latest AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles to defend Pakistani airspace, the new F-16s are Justas much about enhancing the effectiveness of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent