Perceived Threat & Global Challenge

From its creation, Pakistan has believed itself ‘stuck between a rock and a hard place”. Although it shares a border with China, the most populous nation on earth, what really matters in the relationship with India. In 1947 the departing British craved India into Muslim and Hindu majority states. It was a bloody business and as Muslims, Hindus, and Sikhs turned on each other, around a million people died and 17 million fled to which ever state offered them the security of majority status. This legacy explains why Pakistan devotes a s crushing share of its resources to defense. The country has been on a war footing for the whole of its existence, and has been ruled by military governments for around half that time. India’s obsession with Pakistan is less intense, but the sense of siege each instills in the other palpable. It is arguable that abiding disputes with India over Jammu and Kashmir, the Siachen glacier and control of Kashmir are what keep Pakistan together, but the idea of standing ready to deter any malign Indian intent is what underpins PAF doctrine and strategy.

During three weeks last September the PAF carried out Exercise High Mark 2005. This involved all major PAF main and forward operating bases and the scenario centered on air operations against increasing Indian Air Force (IAF) activity over the hilly terrain of Kashmir. The PAF commands divided their aircraft to form ‘Blue’ (PAF) and ‘Fox’ (IAF) Forces, and the PAF simulated the use of AIM-9P/L, R-550 Magic, R-Darter, Exocet, Maverick and cluster bomb weaponry. Two operation headquarters were set up from where ‘Blue and ‘Fox’ air forces engaged in simulated fully-fledged actions in concert with ground troops and army aviation. During High Mark 2005, Pakistani aircrews flew over 8,000 sorties.

The Pakistani strategy was defensive in nature, and aimed to culminate on a favorable note to give political leaders an edge on the negotiation table. The PAF is in no position to do other than make any opponent think long and hard before attacking. The IAF outnumbers it in uniformed personnel by some 4:1, and the ratio is high when it comes to modern, latest technology aircrafts of which the Indian Sukhoi Su-30MKI Flanker and Dassault Mirage 2000H have deeper penetration capabilities. The IAF is also bless with larger reserves, a greater beyond visual range (BVR) capacity, a larger inventory of specialist weapons, and unchallenged strategic reconnaissance capability, more surface-to-surface missiles, more potent terminal defenses, up to three times as many attack helicopters, a much superior air lift capability, satellite facilities and stealth technology. That said, the Pakistan media took it for granted that of course ‘Blue’ forces will have the quality and training edge over the ‘Fox’ forces, plus the vision and the planning capacities of the PAF leadership will serve as a booster.

During the Cold War, non-aligned India was regarded as pro-USSR while Pakistan enjoyed a close relationship with the US and France. French Mirages entered service with the PAF in 1967, and subsequent orders followed in the 1970s. In general terms, Dessault Mirage IIIs are high-speed, all weather, long-range interceptors and flight-bombers while Mirage 5s are ground attack derivations. In 1990, the PAF received 43 second-hand Mirage IIIs and Vs from France. The US provided 40 Lockheed Martin F-16A/B Fighting Falcons in the 1980s and the PAF ordered another batch in 1990, but delivery was blocked by the US Congress to punish the Pakistanis for their nuclear weapon development programme.

India and Pakistan currently have around 40 nuclear warheads apiece. The two nations are going head-to-head in developing ballistic missile delivery system capable of covering each other’s territory. Until Pakistan’s Shaheen II missile with its 1.080nm (2,000km) range enters service. PAF F-16s and Mirage 5s are the long-range nuclear platforms.

As the smaller nation, Pakistan cannot afford to engage in an attack with India. Unlike India, Pakistan does not have a tri-service Strategic Forces Command. Pakistani warheads and army’s or air force delivery systems are based separately. Its minimum nuclear deterrence relies on conventional forces holding the line for as long as it takes for nuclear warheads to be deployed forward and loaded as the PAF lacks a quick reaction alert capability. A PAF F-16s and Mirage 5s are not as potent as their IAF Mikoyan MIG-27M Flogger, Mirage 2000H and Su-30MKI equivalents. Pakistani deterrence relies on qualitative upgrades and survivability. High Mark 05 culminated in testing Pakistan’s nuclear operational preparedness.

“These past 15 years have been particularly difficult as we had no access to contemporary technology and lacked the resources to launch major acquisition programmes,” admitted Ex Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat, Ex-Commander in Chief PAF, in a recent interview. “So this was a period of improvisation and struggle as the PAF sought to maintain a combat capability with adequate deterrent value.” Faced with the Western embargo, Pakistan turned to China as its principal arms supplier, from whom it had already obtained Chengdu F-7P and F-7G multirole fighters and Nanchang A-5III close air support ground attack aircraft. The F-7 is the Mig-21 Fishbed built under Chinese licensed manufacture, and the PAF acquired 55 of the latest F-7PG medium technology variants from 2002 to keep its aircrew current pending the introduction of more capable platforms and weapon systems.

During the period of sanctions, Pakistan felt sidelined as its Indian neighbor received more advanced combat aircrafts, plus new capabilities such as airborne early warning and control aircraft, air-to-air refueling, balloon-borne surveillance radars, real-time reconnaissance through unmanned air vehicles, beyond visual range (BVR) air-to-air weapons, and frequency-hopping and secure radio communications. Consequently, the PAF relied on self-help and collaboration. Pakistani technicians modified the South African T-Darter medium-range, active radar-guided air-to-air missiles (AAM) into the H-4 BVR missile capable operating out to a reported distance of 65nm (120km). A lighter infra-red version, the H-2 was designed to hit targets out to 32nm (60km). H-2 and H-4 can be carried by Mirages, with the former comparable to the Python 4 and the H-4 to the AA-12 Adder in the IAF arsenal.

Pakistan has also developed a cruise missile system – unsubtly named ‘Babur’ after Mogul emperor who invaded India five times – with rumored design help from Chinese or Ukrainian engineers as well as some help from Turkey. This high-speed, lo level terrain hugging missile is said to have a 270nm (500km) range and either a conventional or nuclear warhead. Babur initially is capable of being launched by land and submarine launch, but the longer term goal is to make it an air-to-surface weapon.
Pakistan Air Force

The state-owned Pakistan Aeronautical Complex is rightly proud of its Karakoram-8 (K-8) co-produced with China, and Super Mushak developed from the Swedish Saab MF1-17. The K-8 tandem-seat basic jet trainer has been sold to eight Middle East countries while the 260hp (194kW) single piston-engined Super Mushak light primary trainer has been sold to Saudi Arabia and Oman. The PAF has recently signed a contract for 27 K-8s to add to the 12 it already possesses. In future, the PAF flying training system will compromise the MF1-17 Mushshak in primary, the K-8 in basic and the dual-seat version of the JF-17 in the lead-in-fighter-training role.

In 1999, China and Pakistan agreed on a 50-50 joint development of the FC-1/Super 7, later to be known as the JF-17 Thunder. Designed to match the Indian Light Combat Aircraft, the JF-17 is expected to be in full production by the end of the decade. The PAF is understood to be interested in purchasing 150+ of these fourth generation, multi-role agile light fighters to replace all its F-7s, Mirages and A-5IIIs by 2020. Five JF-17s prototypes now exist and this fully fly-by-wire aircraft has a maximum speed of Mach 1.8. Although of shorter range than the F-16, the JF-17 will have an all-weather navigation and attack capability, will carry a full range of ordnance and be able to engage at all speeds and altitudes. The fairing on its fin tip may be an electronic countermeasures housing. Although the JF-17 may be initially armed with less capable Chinese weaponry, such as the semi-active radar guided PL-11 AAM. “As part of the JF-17 programme we will be able to train engineers and pilots in the field of aircraft design, development, manufacturing and flight testing. This will contribute towards indigenization, self-reliance in meeting the country’s defense requirement and enhancement of economic prosperity of Pakistan, which is totally in line with the government’s policy and our national aspiration,” said Air Chief Marshal Saadat.